The Juglar Cycle

The Juglar cycle is a fixed investment cycle of seven to eleven years identified in 1862 by Clement Juglar. He observed changes of investments in fixed capital that was not just correlated with the level of employment of the fixed capital. A 2010 research study employing spectral analysis confirmed the presence of Juglar Cycles in world GDP dynamics.

The juglar cycle

The so-called Juglar cycle has often been regarded as an important and major economic cycle, but several smaller cycles have also been identified. Close study of the interval between the peaks of the Juglar Cycle suggests that partial setbacks occur during the expansion, or upswing. The studies also suggest that there are partial recoveries during the contraction, or downswing. According to this theory, the smaller cycles generally coincide with changes in business inventories, lasting an average of forty months. Other small cycles result from changes in the demand for and supply of particular agricultural products such as hogs, cotton, and beef.

What is the juglar cycle

 


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